Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Mitchell singled to center, Chourio scored, Contreras to second.1–2
- 5Ortiz homered to left (379 feet).1–1
- 5Conine homered to right center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIA +124 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.5%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -134
- MIA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +89 Elo | MIL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 29–184th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15642nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–48 | 52–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 31–36 |
| Underdog | 27–23 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 51–43–3 | 43–50–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–11 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.