Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Marcus SemienBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Semien homered to left (366 feet), Bichette scored and Polanco scored.3–8
- 7Ewing scored on a passed ball by Rushing, Bichette to second on passed ball by Rushing.3–5
- 7Ewing scored on a passed ball by Rushing, Bichette to second on passed ball by Rushing.3–5
- 6Taylor homered to left (405 feet), Benge scored and Robert Jr. scored.3–4
- 4Alfonzo grounded out to second, Edman scored, T. Hernández to second, Tucker to third.3–1
- 3Muncy grounded out to second, Pages scored, Freeman to third.2–1
- 3Freeman doubled to left, Alfonzo scored, Pages to third.1–1
- 1Lindor singled to right, Ewing scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -150 / NYM +124
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.1%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -134
- NYM +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −10 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +64 Elo | LAD 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–19 | Road vs home | 21–3028th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 1st of 301572 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–55 | 48–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–53 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–56–2 | 46–49–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 19–11 NYM in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.