Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored.3–7
- 3Burger homered to left center (403 feet), Carter scored.2–7
- 3Duran homered to left center (436 feet).2–5
- 3Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to left, Emerson scored.2–4
- 2Pederson homered to right (347 feet), Lopez scored and Díaz scored.1–4
- 2Arozarena homered to center (395 feet).1–1
- 1Pederson homered to center (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -126 / TEX +104
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 27–2513th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–60 | 46–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 19–36 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 51–48–7 | 55–43–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 27–21 TEX in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 48.