Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.6–4
- 8Duran homered to left (420 feet).5–4
- 7Arozarena homered to right center (400 feet).5–3
- 7Canzone homered to right (400 feet), Emerson scored and Young scored.4–3
- 4Lopez reached on infield single to second, Burger scored, Carter to second.1–3
- 4Carter singled to right, Nimmo scored, Burger to third.1–2
- 3Rodríguez singled to left, Young scored.1–1
- 1Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Pederson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML SEA -103 / TEX -117
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.6%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- TEX -106
- SEA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.4 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +7 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 3021–31 | Road vs home | 27–2412th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 149915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–60 | 46–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 50–48–7 | 54–43–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–21 TEX in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 47.