Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6T. Hernández homered to center (412 feet).2–6
- 6Raleigh walked, Arozarena scored, Naylor to second, Canzone to third.2–5
- 6Arozarena doubled to left, Young scored.1–5
- 4Rushing homered to right (400 feet), Tucker scored and T. Hernández scored.0–5
- 1Betts doubled to left, Edman scored and Pages scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML SEA +124 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.0%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -134
- SEA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +85 Elo | LAD 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–33 | Road vs home | 32–205th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 12th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–62 | 51–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–49 | 45–55 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 53–49–7 | 49–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–10 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.