Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jeffers homered to left (372 feet).5–3
- 7Keaschall doubled to left, Roden scored.4–3
- 7Lewis homered to left center (419 feet).3–3
- 2Young homered to right center (373 feet).2–3
- 2Lee homered to right (367 feet), Bell scored.2–2
- 1Raleigh hit a ground rule double, Arozarena scored and Canzone scored, Naylor to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML MIN +144 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.2%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -155
- MIN +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +37 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 30–238th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Elo rating | 150412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–56 | 47–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 31–49 |
| Underdog | 40–28 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 57–45–8 | 53–50–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–12 SEA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.