Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Luke MaileBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rumfield doubled to right, Carrigg scored.1–8
- 6McCarthy homered to right (387 feet), Julien scored and Sullivan scored.1–7
- 6Sullivan doubled to right, Castro scored and Johnston scored, Julien to third.1–4
- 4Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Julien scored, Sullivan to third.1–2
- 2Maile singled to center, Rave scored, Rojas to second.1–1
- 1Carrigg doubled to left, Moniak scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML KC +106 / COL -127
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- COL: Elo 44.5%, market 53.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -115
- KC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.6 – 5.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −18 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +39 Elo | KC 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 53.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–39 | Road vs home | 26–2923rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 27th of 301468 | Elo rating | 141530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–55 | 58–53 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 43–31 | 54–48 |
| Overs–unders | 51–58–3 | 52–55–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–6 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.