Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sullivan singled to right, Castro scored, Freeman to second.1–3
- 4Sheets hit sacrifice fly to right, France scored, Merrill to third.0–3
- 4Rengifo grounded out to first, Machado scored, Merrill to second, France to third.0–2
- 4Merrill singled to left, Cronenworth scored, France to second, Machado to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML COL +161 / SD -197
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SD: Elo 63.4%, market 63.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -173
- COL +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −23 | COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Kyle Hart: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +95 Elo | SD 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–37 | Road vs home | 28–2410th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 30th of 301411 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–52 | 54–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 54–47 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 51–53–4 | 48–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 16–31 SD in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 47.