Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rumfield doubled to right, Moniak scored.5–2
- 6Turang homered to center (434 feet).4–2
- 4Moniak hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored.4–1
- 3Karros singled to right, McCarthy scored, Karros out stretching at second. Colorado Rockies challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–1
- 1Yelich homered to center (413 feet).2–1
- 1Goodman singled to left, Carrigg scored.2–0
- 1Carrigg doubled to left, Karros scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 71%
- ML COL +234 / MIL -294
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 70.7%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -249
- COL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −6 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +153 Elo | MIL 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–34 | Road vs home | 34–193rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301411 | Elo rating | 15672nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–50 | 55–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 34–39 |
| Underdog | 52–45 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 48–52–4 | 45–54–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–12 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.