Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lile tripled to right, Wood scored.7–3
- 7Abrams homered to right center (420 feet), Lile scored.6–3
- 6Young homered to left center (437 feet).4–3
- 3Castro doubled to center, McCarthy scored, Rumfield scored and Carrigg scored.3–3
- 1Chaparro homered to left center (427 feet), Wood scored and Mead scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML WSH -131 / COL +109
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 58.9%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 6.2 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +63 Elo | WSH 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3030–19 | Road vs home | 23–2724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 141530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–42 | 54–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 46–29 | 52–43 |
| Overs–unders | 57–37–6 | 47–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–9 COL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.