Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goodman homered to left center (399 feet).7–8
- 7Vivas hit sacrifice fly to left, Wood scored.7–7
- 6Moniak homered to right center (421 feet).6–7
- 5Rumfield singled to right, Goodman scored.6–6
- 4Wood doubled to left, Nuñez scored and Ruiz scored.6–5
- 3Karros grounded out to second, Castro scored.4–5
- 3Abrams homered to right center (434 feet), Tena scored.4–4
- 2Carrigg singled to center, McCarthy scored.2–4
- 2McCarthy doubled to right, Moniak scored, McCarthy to third.2–3
- 2Johnston hit sacrifice fly to center, Karros scored.2–2
- 2Moniak singled to center, Rumfield scored, Karros to third.2–1
- 1Abrams homered to center (423 feet), Tena scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML WSH -117 / COL -103
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.5%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -106
- COL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 6.6 – 6.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 13
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | WSH: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +32 Elo | WSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–19 | Road vs home | 23–2825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Elo rating | 141330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–42 | 54–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 46–29 | 52–44 |
| Overs–unders | 57–38–6 | 47–51–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 12–9 COL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.