Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting1-5
- Gabriel HughesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nuñez singled to left, Ruiz scored, Vivas to second.8–0
- 7Crews singled to center, Tena scored on error and Abrams scored on throwing error by center fielder Carrigg, Crews safe at third on throwing error by catcher Sullivan.7–0
- 7García Jr. homered to center (421 feet), Nuñez scored.5–0
- 7Nuñez singled to left, Lile scored and Vivas scored on fielding error by left fielder Moniak, Nuñez to second.3–0
- 5Wood hit sacrifice fly to center, Vivas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -148 / COL +123
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +30 Elo | WSH 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–20 | Road vs home | 24–2825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 141430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–42 | 54–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 52–44 |
| Overs–unders | 58–38–6 | 48–51–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 12–10 COL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.