San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Campusano singled to left, Rengifo scored.5–3
- 8Merrill homered to right center (395 feet).4–3
- 8Machado homered to center (399 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–3
- 5Machado doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.1–3
- 3Stowers homered to right (409 feet).0–3
- 2Pauley singled to right, Conine scored.0–2
- 2Hicks scored on throwing error by catcher Campusano, Conine safe at second on error.0–1
- 2Hicks scored on throwing error by catcher Campusano, Conine safe at second on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML SD -104 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.6%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -105
- SD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +3 Elo | SD 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.410th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 16th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 31–227th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–52 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 22–27 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders | 47–56–2 | 54–48–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–7 MIA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.