San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis RengifoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rengifo homered to right (359 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.6–7
- 9Tatis Jr. tripled to left, Cronenworth scored and Sheets scored.4–7
- 9Sheets singled to left, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to third.2–7
- 8Smith singled to right, Olson scored, Riley to third.1–7
- 8Riley singled to center, Albies scored, Olson to third.1–6
- 8Olson singled to left, Baldwin scored, Albies to second.1–5
- 8Albies singled to right, Hicklen scored, Baldwin to third.1–4
- 8Hicklen doubled to left, Jarvis scored.1–3
- 8Jarvis doubled to right, Dubón scored.1–2
- 7Merrill homered to center (449 feet).1–1
- 1Harris II grounded out to first, Baldwin scored, Olson to second, Albies to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML SD -107 / ATL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.8%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +26 Elo | ATL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 30–206th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–52 | 56–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 35–34 |
| Underdog | 33–22 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 44–55–2 | 48–46–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–8 ATL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 28.