San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7France homered to left center (397 feet).2–3
- 6Albies homered to left (393 feet).1–3
- 5Bart doubled to left, Dubón scored.1–2
- 5Harris II homered to right (341 feet).1–1
- 4Machado homered to center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML SD +114 / ATL -138
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.4%, market 55.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −13 | SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 29–196th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–52 | 56–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 35–32 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 43–54–2 | 47–45–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 19–7 ATL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.