San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Jim JarvisBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left center (474 feet), Rengifo scored.8–3
- 7Jarvis scored on a balk, Olson to second on a balk.6–3
- 7Jarvis scored on a balk, Olson to second on a balk.6–3
- 7Jarvis scored on a balk, Olson to second on a balk.6–3
- 6Machado homered to center (418 feet).6–2
- 5Machado homered to left (412 feet).5–2
- 4Tatis Jr. doubled to right, Bogaerts scored.4–2
- 4Rengifo grounded out to shortstop, Sheets scored, Bogaerts to third.3–2
- 4Merrill homered to right center (405 feet).2–2
- 2Jarvis tripled to right, Dubón scored and Hicklen scored.1–2
- 1France singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML SD +123 / ATL -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- SD +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +4 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +61 Elo | ATL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 30–195th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–52 | 56–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 35–33 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 43–55–2 | 47–46–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 19–8 ATL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.