San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis RengifoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rengifo homered to right (361 feet), Bowen scored.4–2
- 5Hernández homered to center (423 feet).2–2
- 5Machado singled to left, Bogaerts scored on error, Machado safe at second, Cronenworth safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Hernández.2–1
- 4Merrill hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored.1–1
- 2Mack homered to right (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML SD +104 / MIA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −18 | SD: German Marquez: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +13 Elo | SD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 31–206th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–52 | 50–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 22–25 |
| Underdog | 35–22 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders | 46–55–2 | 53–47–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–7 MIA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.