San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8France homered to left (395 feet), Machado scored.5–6
- 7Baldwin homered to right (370 feet).3–6
- 4Smith homered to right (392 feet), Harris II scored and Dubón scored.3–5
- 4Albies homered to right center (398 feet).3–2
- 2Harris II homered to right center (420 feet).3–1
- 2Rengifo singled to right, Cronenworth scored and Fermin scored, Tatis Jr. to third.3–0
- 2Tatis Jr. walked, Sheets scored, Cronenworth to second, Fermin to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML SD +215 / ATL -268
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.9%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -229
- SD +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.1 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +18 | SD: Kyle Hart: team allows 1.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +84 Elo | ATL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 31–205th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 56–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 35–35 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 45–55–2 | 49–46–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–9 ATL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.