Miami Marlins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Joe MackBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mack homered to right center (435 feet), Sanoja scored.3–5
- 5Paredes homered to left (388 feet), Peña scored and Alvarez scored.1–5
- 5Stowers doubled to center, Lopez scored.1–2
- 2Spence doubled to right, Wade Jr. scored, Walker to third.0–2
- 1Peña homered to left center (405 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was overturned.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML MIA +102 / HOU -123
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.4%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +3 Elo | HOU 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–29 | Road vs home | 24–2721st of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–51 | 50–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 28–26 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 53–45–3 | 53–43–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–8 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.