Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ward homered to left center (399 feet), Rutschman scored.3–2
- 3Paredes hit sacrifice fly to right, Peña scored.1–2
- 3Alonso walked, Mayo scored, Ward to second, Rutschman to third. Houston Astros challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–1
- 1Alvarez doubled to left, Peña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML BAL +102 / HOU -123
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.9%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +27 Elo | HOU 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 3018–26 | Road vs home | 23–2420th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–49 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–29 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 22–20 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 51–42–4 | 52–40–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–13 HOU in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 23.