Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Astros- Nick AllenBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Taveras singled to right, Ward scored, O'Neill to third.4–2
- 11O'Neill reached on infield single to second, Henderson scored, Ward to second.3–2
- 10Alvarez hit a ground rule double, Spence scored, Allen to third.2–2
- 10Jackson hit sacrifice bunt to first, Taveras scored, Encarnacion-Strand to second.2–1
- 7Allen hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Dezenzo scored, Spence to second.1–1
- 4Beavers doubled to right, Alonso scored, Basallo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML BAL -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +2 Elo | HOU 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3019–26 | Road vs home | 23–2521st of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–49 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–29 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 51–43–4 | 52–41–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–13 HOU in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 24.