Miami Marlins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left center (398 feet).2–5
- 8Alvarez homered to left center (394 feet), Peña scored.2–4
- 4Mack singled to left, Sanoja scored.2–2
- 4Sanoja doubled to right, Conine scored.1–2
- 3Peña homered to left (383 feet).0–2
- 2Allen singled to right, Diaz scored, Spence to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML MIA -107 / HOU -112
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.3%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -102
- MIA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3021–30 | Road vs home | 25–2721st of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 16th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 51–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 28–27 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 53–46–3 | 53–44–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–9 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.