San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.7–2
- 8Stowers singled to center, Ruiz scored, Lopez thrown out at third.6–2
- 8Bowen singled to right, France scored and Merrill scored, Rengifo to second.6–1
- 8France singled to center, Cronenworth scored.4–1
- 7Sheets hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrill scored.3–1
- 3Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Ruiz scored, Marsee out at second on runner's fielder's choice.2–1
- 3France singled to left, Cronenworth scored and Machado scored, France out stretching at second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML SD +123 / MIA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -133
- SD +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 31–216th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–52 | 50–54 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 22–26 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders | 46–56–2 | 53–48–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–7 MIA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.