Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to right, Chourio scored.2–11
- 7Lara doubled to left, Sánchez scored.2–10
- 7Sánchez doubled to right, Bauers scored.2–9
- 7Castro homered to right center (391 feet).2–8
- 6Chourio grounded out to catcher, Pratt scored, Ortiz to third.1–8
- 6Pratt doubled to left, Lara scored and Sánchez scored.1–7
- 6Lara doubled to right, Bauers scored, Sánchez to third.1–5
- 6Vaughn homered to center (404 feet).1–4
- 5Carrigg homered to left (361 feet).1–3
- 1Bauers grounded out to first, Contreras scored.0–3
- 1Turang scored on Freeland wild pitch, Contreras to third on wild pitch by Freeland.0–2
- 1Turang scored on Freeland wild pitch, Contreras to third on wild pitch by Freeland.0–2
- 1Turang reached on bunt single to pitcher, Chourio scored on throwing error by pitcher Freeland.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 75%
- ML COL +290 / MIL -373
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 75.2%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -308
- COL +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 5.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +11 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +192 Elo | MIL 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 75.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–35 | Road vs home | 35–202nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 30th of 301413 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–51 | 56–48 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 35–40 |
| Underdog | 53–46 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 49–53–4 | 46–55–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 11–13 MIL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.