Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Cooper PrattBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Karros singled to center, Tovar scored, McCarthy to second.5–8
- 9McCarthy singled to center, Rumfield scored and Sullivan scored, Tovar to second.4–8
- 8Yelich hit sacrifice fly to center, Lara scored, Pratt to third.2–8
- 6Lara scored on pickoff error by catcher Fulford, Hamilton stole third.2–7
- 6Lara scored on pickoff error by catcher Fulford, Hamilton stole third.2–7
- 6Lara scored on pickoff error by catcher Fulford, Hamilton stole third.2–7
- 6Pratt hit sacrifice fly to left, Mitchell scored.2–6
- 6Lara doubled to left, Contreras scored and Bauers scored, Mitchell to third.2–5
- 4Pratt singled to right, Bauers scored, Lara to third.2–3
- 4Goodman singled to left, Karros scored and Carrigg scored, Goodman to second.2–2
- 2Pratt homered to left center (409 feet).0–2
- 2Lara hit sacrifice fly to right, Bauers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 68%
- ML COL +197 / MIL -244
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 71.5%, market 67.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -211
- COL +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 5.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +160 Elo | MIL 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–34 | Road vs home | 34–203rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301414 | Elo rating | 15642nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–50 | 55–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 34–40 |
| Underdog | 53–45 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 48–53–4 | 45–55–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 11–12 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.