Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting5-5, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrill scored. Colorado Rockies challenged: call on the field was upheld.7–8
- 8Machado singled to right, Cronenworth scored on fielding error by right fielder McCarthy, Machado to second.7–7
- 8Tovar walked, Carrigg scored, Freeman to second, Johnston to third.7–6
- 7France scored on error, Fermin safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Castro.6–6
- 7Merrill singled to right, Machado scored, France to second.6–5
- 7Moniak doubled to left, Tovar scored.6–4
- 7Tovar doubled to left, Castro scored.5–4
- 6Tatis Jr. singled to left, Sheets scored, Campusano to second, Bogaerts to third.4–4
- 5Machado singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Cronenworth to second.4–3
- 3Moniak homered to right (406 feet), McCarthy scored.4–2
- 3McCarthy singled to left, Julien scored.2–2
- 3Castro homered to right center (395 feet).1–2
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Campusano thrown out at home.0–2
- 2Campusano doubled to shortstop, Sheets scored, Bogaerts to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 68%
- ML COL +198 / SD -245
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SD: Elo 66.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -212
- COL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +120 Elo | SD 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–36 | Road vs home | 27–2412th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 30th of 301412 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–52 | 54–52 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 53–47 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–53–4 | 47–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 16–30 SD in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 46.