Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte grounded out to shortstop, Jensen scored.6–12
- 9Rave homered to right (417 feet).5–12
- 8Moniak hit sacrifice fly to center, Rumfield scored.4–12
- 8Goodman singled to right, Karros scored, Rumfield to third.4–11
- 8Rumfield singled to left, McCarthy scored, Karros to second.4–10
- 7Goodman homered to left (424 feet).4–9
- 5Castro homered to center (422 feet).4–8
- 4Rumfield singled to center, McCarthy scored.4–7
- 3Goodman homered to left (384 feet), Karros scored and Rumfield scored.4–6
- 3Rumfield singled to center, Doyle scored, Karros to third.4–3
- 3Karros doubled to right, Castro scored and Freeman scored, Doyle to third.4–2
- 3Perez homered to center (425 feet).4–0
- 3Caglianone homered to right (410 feet), Tolbert scored.3–0
- 2Massey hit sacrifice fly to left, Collins scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML KC +109 / COL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- COL: Elo 41.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.6 – 5.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +60 Elo | KC 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–38 | Road vs home | 25–2924th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 141230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–54 | 57–53 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 43–30 | 54–48 |
| Overs–unders | 50–58–3 | 51–55–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–5 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.