Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jensen homered to right (424 feet).1–3
- 4Doyle doubled to left, Johnston scored.0–3
- 4Karros scored on error, Johnston safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Massey, Johnston safe at second on error.0–2
- 1Rumfield singled to right, Moniak scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 50%
- ML KC -108 / COL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- COL: Elo 44.3%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.5 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +18 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +40 Elo | KC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–37 | Road vs home | 24–2926th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 27th of 301473 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–53 | 56–53 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 43–29 | 54–48 |
| Overs–unders | 50–57–3 | 51–54–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–4 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.