Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Emerson singled to right, Fairchild scored, Robles to third.6–7
- 9Keaschall homered to right center (373 feet).6–6
- 8Lewis homered to center (402 feet), Bell scored and Clemens scored.5–6
- 8Larnach homered to right (395 feet), Kreidler scored.2–6
- 7Raleigh homered to left center (418 feet), Canzone scored and Rodríguez scored.0–6
- 6Young singled to center, Emerson scored, Rivas to third.0–3
- 1Naylor doubled to left, Arozarena scored and Young scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML MIN +122 / SEA -147
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.0%, market 56.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -132
- MIN +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3026–29 | Road vs home | 31–248th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 150312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–56 | 47–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 31–51 |
| Underdog | 42–28 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 58–45–9 | 54–50–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–13 SEA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.