Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani homered to left center (367 feet), Rojas scored.6–7
- 8Muncy homered to right center (413 feet), Tucker scored and Betts scored.4–7
- 7Hoerner doubled to left, Busch scored. Los Angeles Dodgers challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–7
- 4Bregman singled to left, Suzuki scored.1–6
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right (405 feet), Taylor scored.1–5
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Swanson scored.1–3
- 2Swanson doubled to left, Hoerner scored.1–2
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (376 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML LAD +102 / CHC -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.5%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -105
- LAD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +18 Elo | CHC 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–22 | Road vs home | 33–248th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301559 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–62 | 56–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 46–60 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 52–60–2 | 58–50–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–14 CHC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.