New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pedro RamirezBatting2-4
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Jones homered to right center (418 feet).2–0
- 4Rosario homered to center (450 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML NYY +143 / CHC -174
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -154
- NYY +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 5.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +12 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +55 Elo | CHC 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–25 | Road vs home | 30–228th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–52 | 53–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 41–44 | 26–42 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 46–58–5 | 56–47–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–5 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.