Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Herrera doubled to left, Walker scored and Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.2–3
- 10Walker grounded into fielder's choice to third, Church scored, Wetherholt to second, Nootbaar out at third.2–1
- 10Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (424 feet), Swanson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML CHC -108 / STL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- STL: Elo 42.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -102
- CHC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +53 Elo | CHC 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–24 | Road vs home | 27–3122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–56 | 60–47 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–42 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 25–14 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 56–45–6 | 43–58–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 26–21 STL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 47.