Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3
- Hunter GreenePitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Church hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Torres scored, Jordan to second.0–7
- 6Jordan singled to right, Nootbaar scored and Winn scored, Torres to third.0–6
- 6Torres singled to right, Herrera scored, Winn to second, Nootbaar to third.0–4
- 6Herrera doubled to left, Burleson scored and Wetherholt scored.0–3
- 1Burleson singled to left, Wetherholt scored, Walker to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / STL -104
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 46.7%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -105
- STL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +23 Elo | STL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 26–2822nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–49 | 59–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 38–28 | 48–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–45–1 | 41–56–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 21–24 STL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 45.