Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tyler LocklearBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar singled to right, Torres scored and Burleson scored.10–6
- 9Torres singled to right, Church scored and Wetherholt scored.10–4
- 9Arenado singled to left, Del Castillo scored, Vargas to second.10–2
- 8Moreno singled to right, Locklear scored, Perdomo to second, Arenado to third.9–2
- 8Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.8–2
- 8Arenado singled to right, Tawa scored, Locklear to second, Vargas to third.7–2
- 8Locklear singled to center, Del Castillo scored, Vargas to second, Tawa to third.6–2
- 8Del Castillo singled to left, Moreno scored.5–2
- 5Moreno hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.4–2
- 4Locklear homered to left (364 feet), Del Castillo scored.3–2
- 4Tawa hit sacrifice fly to center, Kepler scored, Del Castillo to third.1–2
- 1Nootbaar singled to center, Walker scored, Burleson to second.0–2
- 1Walker doubled to center, Wetherholt scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML ARI +104 / STL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- STL: Elo 51.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +9 Elo | STL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 26–2619th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–47 | 59–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 37–19 | 48–22 |
| Overs–unders | 41–53–8 | 40–55–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 13–11 STL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.