St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell hit by pitch, Siri scored, Lowe to second, Grissom to third.2–3
- 9Grissom doubled to right, Peraza scored, Siri to third. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.2–2
- 3Adell homered to left center (389 feet).2–1
- 2Jordan grounded out to third, Nootbaar scored, Church to second.2–0
- 2Church singled to right, Walker scored, Nootbaar to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / LAA -104
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- STL: Elo 57.2%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- LAA +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +50 Elo | STL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 22–2725th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–41 | 48–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 46–21 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders | 40–52–6 | 46–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–6 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.