St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting2-3
- Reid DetmersPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wetherholt homered to center (409 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 57%
- ML STL +123 / LAA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 49.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +7 Elo | STL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 24–2722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 145128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–42 | 49–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 47–22 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54–6 | 46–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–8 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.