St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Wetherholt grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jordan scored, Torres out at second.1–5
- 1Adell homered to left center (405 feet), Grissom scored.0–5
- 1Grissom singled to right, Soler scored, Grissom to second.0–3
- 1Soler doubled to left, Schanuel and Trout scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML STL +104 / LAA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- LAA: Elo 50.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +19 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +3 Elo | LAA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 9th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 23–2725th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Elo rating | 144929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–41 | 48–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 47–21 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders | 40–53–6 | 46–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–7 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.