Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Blaze JordanBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stewart singled to left, De La Cruz scored.4–2
- 7Suárez homered to left center (435 feet), Stewart scored.3–2
- 5Jordan doubled to left, Church scored and Herrera scored.1–2
- 4Stephenson hit a ground rule double, Bleday scored, Steer to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML CIN +119 / STL -144
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- STL: Elo 56.5%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | 0 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +46 Elo | STL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 26–2719th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Elo rating | 149021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–49 | 59–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 37–28 | 48–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–44–1 | 41–55–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 20–24 STL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 44.