Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki homered to left (392 feet), Swanson scored.7–8
- 8Hoerner singled to left, Busch scored, Happ to second.5–8
- 5Valdez singled to right, Lowe scored.4–8
- 4Crow-Armstrong tripled to center, Ramirez scored.4–7
- 4Ramirez singled to center, Conforto scored.3–7
- 4Kelly grounded out to third, Hoerner scored, Conforto to third.2–7
- 3O'Hearn homered to center (406 feet), Lowe scored, Reynolds scored and Valdez scored.1–7
- 2Ross homered to left (438 feet), O'Hearn scored.1–3
- 2Valdez homered to left center (405 feet).1–1
- 2Swanson singled to left, Conforto scored, Swanson to second, Ramirez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML CHC +119 / PIT -144
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.9%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- CHC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–23 | Road vs home | 27–2615th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–56 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 53–45–6 | 60–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 32–16 PIT in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 48.