Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 10Mangum singled to center, Cook scored, Triolo to third.5–3
- 10Triolo singled to left, Gonzales scored, Cook to second.4–3
- 7Rice homered to right (394 feet), McMahon scored and Wells scored.3–3
- 7Gonzales homered to right center (397 feet).3–0
- 5Gonzalez homered to right (348 feet), Gonzales scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML PIT +167 / NYY -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.4%, market 64.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -179
- PIT +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 5.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +11 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +74 Elo | NYY 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 25–2211th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15403rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–52 | 52–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 38–41 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 59–39–3 | 43–52–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–6 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.