Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Caballero hit a ground rule double, Domínguez scored and McMahon scored, Wells to third.5–8
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right (376 feet), Bellinger scored.5–6
- 3Valdez homered to right center (436 feet), Reynolds scored.5–4
- 2Gonzales singled to center, Triolo scored.3–4
- 2Triolo hit a ground rule double, O'Hearn scored and Ozuna scored.2–4
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (377 feet), Goldschmidt scored and Bellinger scored.0–4
- 1Goldschmidt grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rice scored on throwing error by left fielder Reynolds, Goldschmidt second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML PIT +100 / NYY -121
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.5%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 24–2215th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15383rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–51 | 51–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 37–41 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 58–39–3 | 42–52–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–5 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.