Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Gonzales grounded out to shortstop, Davis scored.3–2
- 10Suzuki walked, Ramirez scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Swanson to third.3–1
- 10Swanson singled to center, Happ scored, Ramirez to second. Pittsburgh Pirates challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–1
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right (375 feet).1–1
- 5Davis reached on infield single to second, Ozuna scored, Triolo to second, Lowe to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML CHC -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +17 Elo | CHC 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 27–2412th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 4th of 301535 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–56 | 50–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 21–31 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 52–44–6 | 59–41–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 30–16 PIT in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 46.