Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Jake MangumBatting1-4
- Paul SkenesPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramirez doubled to center, Triantos scored.11–0
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to right (390 feet), Ramirez scored.10–0
- 6Busch singled to right, Amaya scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.8–0
- 6Amaya singled to left, Ramirez scored and Swanson scored.6–0
- 6Swanson doubled to left, Hoerner scored, Ramirez to third.4–0
- 5Suzuki singled to right, Amaya scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.3–0
- 5Crow-Armstrong doubled to center, Swanson scored, Amaya to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML CHC +107 / PIT -128
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.0%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -116
- CHC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +21 Elo | CHC 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–23 | Road vs home | 27–2514th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 4th of 301536 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–56 | 50–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 52–45–6 | 59–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 31–16 PIT in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 47.