Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Gordon GraceffoPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Winn hit a ground rule double, Nootbaar scored.10–2
- 9Kelly singled to center, Happ scored, Dean to third.10–1
- 8Suzuki singled to center, Ramirez scored.9–1
- 5Ramirez reached on infield single to third, Hoerner scored.8–1
- 4Church hit sacrifice fly to right, Burleson scored.7–1
- 2Hoerner singled to right, Bregman scored and Busch scored, Happ to third.7–0
- 2Busch singled to right, Suzuki scored.5–0
- 2Suzuki doubled to left, Kelly scored.4–0
- 2Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to center, Conforto scored, Kelly to third.3–0
- 1Happ doubled to right, Bregman scored and Suzuki scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML CHC -108 / STL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- STL: Elo 45.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -102
- CHC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +29 Elo | CHC 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3030–24 | Road vs home | 27–3022nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–56 | 60–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–42 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 55–45–6 | 42–58–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 25–21 STL in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 46.