Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoerner homered to left (382 feet), Bregman scored.7–3
- 6Torres hit a ground rule double, Winn scored.5–3
- 6Winn singled to center, Walker scored, Winn to second.5–2
- 5Hoerner singled to center, Bregman scored and Kelly scored.5–1
- 3Bregman homered to right (369 feet).3–1
- 2Fermín homered to left (407 feet).2–1
- 2Amaya singled to right, Hoerner scored, Swanson to second.2–0
- 1Bregman doubled to left, Suzuki scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -124 / STL +103
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.8%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- STL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −11 | CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–24 | Road vs home | 27–2921st of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–56 | 60–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 48–22 |
| Overs–unders | 54–45–6 | 41–58–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 24–21 STL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 45.