Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Burleson singled to left, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.5–3
- 10Lowe singled to left, De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored, Suárez to second.5–2
- 10Stewart singled to right, Stephenson scored.3–2
- 5Hayes homered to left (387 feet).2–2
- 3Herrera homered to left center (411 feet).1–2
- 3De La Cruz homered to left center (410 feet).1–1
- 2Fermín hit sacrifice fly to left, Burleson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML CIN +113 / STL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 56.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -123
- CIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +43 Elo | STL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 27–2819th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–50 | 60–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 38–29 | 48–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46–1 | 41–57–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 21–25 STL in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 46.