New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Max SchuemannBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meidroth homered to left (406 feet), B. Montgomery scored.3–2
- 2Schuemann doubled to left, Grisham scored and Volpe scored.3–0
- 2Volpe doubled to center, Domínguez scored, Grisham to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / CHW +104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.0%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +8 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–23 | Road vs home | 32–204th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–50 | 55–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–42 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 45–29 |
| Overs–unders | 45–56–5 | 60–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–7 CHW in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.