New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4
- Brian KellerPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Domínguez homered to left (420 feet).3–1
- 6Bellinger singled to center, Wells scored, Goldschmidt to second.2–1
- 3Wells homered to left center (430 feet).1–1
- 1Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -126 / PHI +104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Tim Mayza: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3032–22 | Road vs home | 27–2616th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 15217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–49 | 44–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–42 | 31–44 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 43–55–5 | 43–56–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–3 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.