Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ BlubaughPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Braden MontgomeryBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vázquez hit a ground rule double, Trammell scored, Smith to third.9–5
- 6Wade Jr. walked, Alvarez scored, Altuve to second, Paredes to third.8–5
- 6Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop, Peña scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.7–5
- 6Smith homered to left (383 feet), Walker scored.6–5
- 6Walker doubled to left, Paredes scored, Wade Jr. scored and Altuve scored.4–5
- 6Wade Jr. singled to right, Alvarez scored, Altuve to second, Paredes to third.1–5
- 5Meidroth doubled to center, B. Montgomery scored.0–5
- 5Benintendi scored on Teng wild pitch, B. Montgomery to second on wild pitch by Teng.0–4
- 5Benintendi scored on Teng wild pitch, B. Montgomery to second on wild pitch by Teng.0–4
- 1Meidroth hit by pitch, Vargas scored, Peters to second, B. Montgomery to third.0–3
- 1B. Montgomery singled to right, Murakami scored, Vargas to third.0–2
- 1C. Montgomery hit sacrifice fly to center, Antonacci scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 55%
- ML HOU +114 / CHW -137
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 55.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +11 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +38 Elo | CHW 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 31–172nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–52 | 54–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 45–28 |
| Overs–unders | 53–45–6 | 57–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–8 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.