New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rice homered to center (417 feet).4–11
- 6Stott doubled to right, Bohm scored, Turner scored and Schwarber scored.3–11
- 6Bohm hit by pitch, Crawford scored, Schwarber to second, Turner to third.3–8
- 6Turner singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Crawford to second.3–7
- 5Volpe doubled to left, Rosario scored.3–6
- 5Domínguez grounded out to third, Rice scored, Rosario to third.2–6
- 5Sánchez scored, Rice to second on pickoff error by pitcher Sánchez.1–6
- 5Sánchez scored, Rice to second on pickoff error by pitcher Sánchez.1–6
- 3Stott singled to right, Bohm scored.0–6
- 3Bohm doubled to center, Marsh scored, Schwarber scored and Harper scored.0–5
- 2Stott homered to right (360 feet).0–2
- 1Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML NYY +177 / PHI -218
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.5%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -190
- NYY +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3033–22 | Road vs home | 27–2718th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 15208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–49 | 44–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 40–42 | 31–44 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 43–56–5 | 43–57–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–3 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.